Karnataka Congress Faces Growing Public Discontent
It is natural for the ruling party to face some level of opposition. However, the situation of the Karnataka Congress seems to be even more dire. If elections were held right now, there appears to be an atmosphere in Karnataka where the Congress would suffer a severe setback. On the other hand, there are clear signs that the BJP has significantly revived. As the Congress government in Karnataka, led by Siddaramaiah, completes two years in power, the "Pulse of the Karnataka State" survey conducted jointly by People's Pulse Research Organization and Kodemo Technologies reveals intense public dissatisfaction with the Congress government and increasing support for the BJP, the main opposition party. As support for the Congress government has waned in the first 24 months, the next 36 months are expected to be even more crucial. If the Congress government is losing popularity within its first two years in power, it remains to be seen how it will protect its reputation over the next three years.
The survey conducted by People's Pulse Research Organization, "Pulse of the Karnataka State," revealed that if elections were held today for the Karnataka State Assembly, the BJP would have a strong chance of coming to power, while support for the ruling Congress party has declined. A notable point from the analysis of election results in Karnataka since 1985 is that no ruling party has ever achieved an absolute majority in the subsequent election. This trend is likely to continue this time as well. The "Pulse of the Karnataka State" tracker poll was conducted jointly by People's Pulse and Kodemo Technologies from April 17 to May 18 with a sample size of 10,481 across the state. Karnataka has 224 assembly constituencies, and the magic number for majority is 113. According to the survey, if elections were held today, the main opposition party BJP would win 136–159 seats with 51% vote share, Congress would win 62–82 seats with 40.3% vote share, and JD(S) would secure 3–6 seats with 5% vote share. BJP currently holds a clear lead of 10.7% in vote share over the ruling Congress.
The Pahalgam incident and the subsequent Operation Sindhoor also turned favorable for the BJP. The survey revealed that BJP gained 1–1.5% more voter support after the Pakistan ceasefire agreement on May 10. In the 2023 elections, Congress secured 135 seats with 42.88% of the votes, BJP got 66 seats with 36%, and JD(S) won 19 seats with 13.29%. In just two years, Congress is now facing severe public dissatisfaction, according to the survey. When asked who is likely to come to power in Karnataka after the next Assembly elections, 55% said BJP, 39.1% said Congress, 3.6% JD(S), and 2.3% said other parties, as per the People's Pulse-Kodemo survey. Among women voters, BJP enjoys 48.4% support while Congress has 44.6%, giving BJP a 3.8% edge among women. Despite implementing numerous welfare schemes for women under Siddaramaiah's leadership, the Congress has not received the expected support. Among male voters, BJP has 51.9% and Congress 38.9%, a notable 13% lead for BJP. Among voters aged 18–25, BJP continues to have a 24% lead over Congress. In other age groups, BJP is expected to receive 48% to 51% of votes, while Congress may get 42% to 44%, as per the People's Pulse survey.
BJP holds a clear advantage in both rural and urban areas in the state. In rural areas, BJP has a 13.5% lead over Congress and 6.6% in urban areas. In rural regions, JD(S) is projected to gain 5.7% votes. Among farmers, BJP could get 53.9% and Congress 37.4%. Despite focusing on farmer issues and achieving favorable results in 2023, Congress is now losing traction among this group. Religion and caste politics are very significant in Karnataka. Among the Hindu community, BJP has 58.5% support while Congress is limited to 32%. In contrast, among the Muslim community, Congress has strong support with 85.5%, while BJP is expected to get only 9.3%. Among general category voters in the state, BJP has a 15.1% lead, among OBCs 14%, and among STs 22%. In the crucial Lingayat community, BJP has 78.9% support, while Congress has 54.6% in the Kuruba community. In the Okaliga community, BJP has 47.8%, JD(S) 24.6%, and Congress 22.9% support.
Analyzing social group-wise, Congress leads over BJP among the Kuruba, Adi Karnataka, Madiga, and Mother communities, whereas BJP is ahead in Lingayat (Veerashaiva), Okaliga Nayak/Nayaka Valmiki, Marathas, and Vishwakarma communities. Among SCs, Congress is projected to get 51.5% votes, while BJP may receive 41.7%, giving Congress a 9.8% vote share lead in this community. The survey also reconfirms that the most popular leader in the state is current Chief Minister Siddaramaiah. When asked who would be the best Chief Minister for the state, 29.2% favored current CM Siddaramaiah, 10.7% supported Deputy CM D.K. Shivakumar, 7.6% backed JD(S) leader and former CM H.D. Kumaraswamy, 5.5% preferred BJP leader and former CM B.S. Yediyurappa, and 5.2% chose Karnataka BJP President B.Y. Vijayendra.
