NDA Set to Retain Power in Bihar: Exit Polls

Until the elections, the political contest in Bihar was said to be neck-and-neck. All the key parties campaigned in their own styles. With the final phase of polling concluding on Tuesday, November 11, the exit polls were released soon after. Interestingly, contrary to the pre-election predictions, all exit polls have indicated that the results are likely to favor the NDA alliance. Across all surveys—regardless of the agencies involved—the message is the same: the NDA is set to return to power in Bihar once again. The actual results will be announced on November 14. It is being speculated that Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s move to distribute ₹10,000 each to 1.25 crore women under the Mahila Rozgar Yojana before the elections might have played a major role in helping the NDA secure a large majority.

According to the surveys, the NDA is expected to get 46.2% of the votes, the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) 37.9%, the newly formed Jan Suraj Party 9.7%, and others 6.2%. The People’s Pulse exit poll stated that there could be a margin of error of about ±3%. Based on these projections, the BJP–JD(U)-led NDA alliance appears set to return to power in Bihar with a clear majority. Out of the 243 seats in the Bihar Assembly, the majority mark is 122. According to People’s Pulse, the NDA could win 133–159 seats, the Mahagathbandhan 75–101 seats, others 2–8 seats, and the newly launched Jan Suraj Party 0–5 seats. Within the NDA, the BJP is projected to win 63–70 seats, JD(U) 55–62, LJP (RV) 12–17, HAM 2–5, and RLM 1–4. Within the Mahagathbandhan, the RJD could secure 62–69 seats, the Congress 9–18, and the CPI(ML) 4–9. The Jan Suraj Party is expected to get 0–5 seats, AIMIM 0–2, CPI(M) 0–3, VIP 0–5, CPI 0–2, and others 2–8 seats, according to the People’s Pulse exit poll.

In terms of vote share, the BJP is expected to get 21.4%, RJD 23.3%, JD(U) 17.6%, Jan Suraj Party 9.7%, Congress 8.7%, LJP 5%, and others 7.2%. When asked who would be the best Chief Minister, 32% of respondents favored Tejashwi Yadav, 30% backed Nitish Kumar, 8% each supported Prashant Kishor and Chirag Paswan, 6% backed Samrat Choudhary, and 2% favored Rajesh Kumar. According to the People’s Pulse survey, the NDA leads among upper castes, SCs, STs, and EBC communities, while the Mahagathbandhan holds stronger support among Muslims, Buddhists, and OBC groups. Notably, 66.8% of women expressed support for the NDA, while only 24.8% backed the Mahagathbandhan. All exit polls have unanimously concluded that the NDA alliance is poised to return to power once again in Bihar.