GDP Data Controversy: Why Experts Are Questioning Modi Government’s 7.8% Claim

There was a time when people generally believed that whatever the government said was final. The reason was that most people trusted governments not to present manipulated figures. That situation has now changed completely. There are growing concerns that even the statements made by state and central governments are no longer viewed as credible. Take the issue of the debts incurred by previous governments in the two Telugu states, for example. The TDP does not accept the figures presented by the YSRCP, and the YSRCP does not accept the figures presented by the TDP. The situation is similar in Telangana. The ruling Congress gives one set of figures, while the opposition BRS presents another. This political dispute has been continuing for years. Now, allegations are being raised that the central government has also manipulated the figures relating to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). If these allegations had come only from the Congress, the BJP’s political rival, they could simply have been dismissed as political criticism. But former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan himself has expressed doubts over the GDP figures announced by the Centre.

He is not the only one. Former Union Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg has also raised questions about the figures released by the central government. He questioned that if, as the Modi government claims, India’s GDP growth rate stood at 7.8% during April-June 2026, then why did employment opportunities in the country not increase correspondingly? He also questioned why private corporate investments remained so low. He further stated that domestic business expansion has also been progressing at a very slow pace. Subhash Garg went a step further, saying that the GDP growth rate was not 7.8% as claimed by the government, but only 2.6%. This triggered a major controversy. However, the Centre has rejected Subhash Garg’s arguments. On the one hand, several sectors of the country have been facing serious difficulties due to rising fuel prices amid the war-like situation in West Asia over the past six months. At such a time, the central government’s claim that the country’s GDP growth rate had exceeded expectations has left many people surprised.

At the same time, prices of various products have been rising over the past few months, pushing inflation higher. The rise in oil prices due to the US-Iran war, along with disruptions to supply chains across several sectors, has created further difficulties. Despite all this, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was on a foreign tour, expressed happiness through a video over India achieving record-level GDP growth by overcoming the crisis. However, some officials reportedly say that these GDP figures have been achieved not because of actual economic progress, but mainly because of changes made in the methodology used to calculate GDP. With former Union Finance Secretary Subhash Garg and former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan both making statements that cast serious doubt on the GDP figures announced by the Centre, questions are now being raised among the public as well. The Congress has also started attacking the central government over the issue. There is now a growing debate that the BJP, which had once promised that it would curb black money and bring back the black money stashed abroad if given power, now appears to be misleading the public by making exaggerated claims even about GDP figures.